2024 Election: Looking Ahead at Key Leadership & Committees
How might things shape up when the 119th Congress convenes in January?
In 2022, the nation anticipated a red wave that ultimately never materialized. Two years later, it arrived in full force. During the lead-up to this Election Day, polls suggested many races were too close to call. But at this point, it looks like Republicans have captured the White House, the Senate, and likely the House as well.
What does this mean for ocean policy? Before the election, we explored which ocean and coastal focus areas a second Trump Administration might prioritize. Now, let’s dive into how key Senate and House leadership roles and committees might shape up when the 119th Congress convenes in January.
Senate
At the time of this posting, Republicans hold a 53-45 Senate majority, with races in Arizona and Nevada yet to be called. The Ohio Senate seat currently held by Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance will be filled with another Republican, who will serve for the next two years until a special election is held in November 2026. Naming that replacement will be up to Republican Ohio Governor Mike DeWine.
The final Senate split will most likely be 54-46—six votes short of the 60-seat supermajority required for procedural votes like cloture (which is used to end the filibuster and floor debate).
Earlier this year, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced he would be stepping aside from his current position. McConnell’s seniority does give him options for key roles on both the Senate Agriculture and Senate Appropriations Committees (more on this below). Sens. John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Rick Scott (R-FL) are vying to replace McConnell as the next Majority Leader. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will continue to lead Senate Democrats as the next Minority Leader, a position he held from 2017-2021.
With a series of retirements, term limits, and changes to Senate leadership positions, the top spots at several relevant committees will look different in the 119th Congress:
Senate Committee On Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry
Relevance to our community: This committee is responsible for matters related to food from fresh waters, as well as the Farm Bill, which includes provisions related to seafood.
Current Ranking Member John Boozman (R-AR) could remain the committee’s top Republican. However, with McConnell stepping down from his current role, he has the option to use his seniority on the committee to bump Sen. Boozman from the top Republican spot. That being said, McConnell also has the option to do the same on the Appropriations Committee. On the Democrat side, with current Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) retiring and Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) loss, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) should move up the ranks.
Senate Committee on Appropriations
Relevance to our community: This committee plays a critical role in shaping federal spending by allocating funds to government agencies within its areas of jurisdiction, as well as in drafting supplemental spending bills to address unforeseen expenses, such as natural disasters, military emergencies, or public health crises.
Current Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) is expected to continue as the lead Democrat, while Ranking Member Susan Collins (R-ME) is anticipated to become the next Chair. Minority Leader McConnell technically has the seniority to challenge Collins for the top Republican spot on the Senate Appropriations Committee, but it’s widely believed he will not pursue this option. McConnell could instead aim for a leadership role on an appropriations subcommittee. This scenario would allow Collins to assume the Chair position without opposition, ensuring continuity of bipartisan collaboration in the full committee.
Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation
Relevance to our community: This committee has oversight of maritime activities, fisheries management, ocean conservation, and related federal programs under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It also oversees scientific research and development, maritime transportation, trade, environmental monitoring, and innovation in scientific fields.
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) is expected to continue in a leadership role, transitioning to Ranking Member. As noted above, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) is running for the position of Majority Leader. If unsuccessful, because he is facing term limits as Minority Whip, Thune may seek to use his seniority to chair the Commerce Committee. This would allow him to overtake current ranking Republican Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) for the top Republican spot. Thune’s elevation to Chair would shift Cruz into a different role on the committee, or into another position within GOP Senate leadership.
Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
Relevance to our community: This committee has jurisdiction over oceans and fisheries, with a greater focus on environmental impacts than on direct resource management. Its work is essential in creating a framework for protecting marine ecosystems and addressing pollution and climate impacts on ocean resources, as well as to oversight of environmental protection, water resources, and wildlife conservation.
The committee is set for significant leadership changes in the 119th Congress. With Chair Joe Manchin (D-WV) retiring, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) is expected to step in as the Democrat successor. Meanwhile, current Ranking Member Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) may not remain in his role if he successfully pursues a new leadership position as Majority Whip (Senate rules would bar him from also holding a leadership role on the committee). This scenario would likely open up the Chair position to Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), who is next in line. Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) is more senior, but he is anticipated to continue his leadership as the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee. This makes it unlikely he would pursue Energy and Natural Resources' top Republican spot.
Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works
Relevance to our community: This committee places a focus on resource management and energy production, which includes offshore wind, ocean energy technologies, and marine minerals. The committee also works closely with other Senate committees to ensure that ocean energy development aligns with environmental and conservation goals.
Environment and Public Works is also set for leadership changes due to the retirement of Chair Tom Carper (D-DE). Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) is the most likely candidate to assume the Ranking Member role. There are factors that could lead him to remain in his current role on the Budget Committee, but this is unlikely to play out under a Republican-controlled Senate. On the Republican side, current Ranking Member Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) is expected to become Chair.
House of Representatives
With roughly three dozen races still undecided, the path for Democrats to gain control of the House is possible, but narrow. Republicans are well positioned to hold the majority, albeit once again by single digits. Surprisingly, only a handful of House incumbents have been defeated at this time, but there will still be many new faces in the House come January 3 because of retirements and Members running for different offices.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA-04) has already reached out to his colleagues asking for their support to re-elect him. Assuming Republicans hold onto the majority, he should retain his gavel. If they don’t take back the House, Democrats are likely to stick with Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY-08) as Minority Leader.
Assuming Republicans retain their majority, we probably won’t see any changes to House leadership in the 119th Congress, but there will be a few noticeable changes to relevant House committees:
House Committee on Agriculture
Relevance to our community: This committee focuses on aquaculture, food safety related to seafood products, conservation programs affecting aquatic ecosystems, and the economic wellbeing of rural and coastal fishing communities. It is also responsible for reauthorizing the Farm Bill, which includes provisions that support the sustainable management of fisheries, aquaculture, and the broader seafood industry.
Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA-15) is expected to remain Chair. If Rep. David Scott (D-GA-13)—who has been the Ranking Member since the 116th Congress—steps down, Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA-21) could be a strong contender to replace him. Rep. Costa previously ran against Rep. Scott for the top role and would be next in line to assume leadership.
House Committee on Appropriations
Relevance to our community: This committee oversees the federal budget and allocates funding across government programs and agencies. It is considered one of the most powerful committees in Congress.
Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK-04) was elected the new head of the House Appropriations Committee on April 9, 2024. He is expected to continue as the top Republican on the committee into the 119th Congress. On the Democrat side, Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT-03) is anticipated to retain her leadership position, which would provide continuity for the committee.
House Committee on Energy and Commerce
Relevance to our community: This committee is among the most influential in the House and is extremely important to ocean policy. It oversees key issue areas, including ocean and coastal protection (promoting the health of marine ecosystems); issues related to the safety, labeling, and regulation of seafood products under the Food and Drug Administration; marine biotechnology; offshore energy development, including renewable energy like offshore wind; and any related environmental impacts on coastal and marine environments.
With Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA-05) retiring at the end of the 118th Congress, a competitive race for her successor is underway. Reps. Brett Guthrie (R-KY-02) and Bob Latta (R-OH-05) are both vying for the chairmanship, with Guthrie reportedly holding an advantage over Latta. Additionally—if he chooses to step down from his role as Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee—Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC-09) may enter the race. Ranking Member Frank Pallone (D-NJ-06) is expected to retain his position as the committee’s top Democrat.
House Committee on Natural Resources
Relevance to our community: This committee has primary jurisdiction over fisheries management, marine conservation, and sustainable seafood practices. It is also directly involved with the regulation of fisheries and oceanic ecosystems, making it the principal committee for issues relating to sustainable seafood, marine wildlife, and fisheries management.
Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-AR-04) is expected to remain Chair, and Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ-07) is likely to continue as Ranking Member. Both have led the committee through several previous Congresses, and their continued leadership will provide stability.
House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology
Relevance to our community: This committee has direct oversight of NOAA and plays a vital role in funding and overseeing scientific research, technological development, and data collection that is essential to developing evidence-based policies for sustainable ocean and fisheries management.
Rep. Brian Babin (R-TX-36) is currently the only Member who has officially announced his intention to run for the committee’s top Republican position. However, it is possible that other Members may enter the race as leadership dynamics and interests evolve. Current Ranking Member Zoe Lofgren (D-CA-18) is expected to remain the committee’s top Democrat.
House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure
Relevance to our community: This committee has indirect jurisdiction over oceans, fisheries, and seafood—primarily through its oversight of maritime transportation, port infrastructure, environmental protection related to shipping, and coastal resilience projects. Its work affects the infrastructure, environmental protection, and regulatory framework that supports healthy marine ecosystems.
After serving four years as Ranking Member and two years as Chair, Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO-06) is term-limited. That said, he is reportedly seeking a waiver to remain in his leadership role. Graves faces strong competition from Rep. Rick Crawford (R-AR-01), who announced his intention to run for the top Republican spot. Current Ranking Member Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA-02) is expected to remain the top Democrat.
With some races yet to be called and the fate of the House undecided, there is far more to come. Keep an eye out for more updates next week! Leave a comment or reach out with any questions.